It looks as though the tight power supply/demand balance we are experiencing will continue into next month, according to Transpower’s forecasting.
NEW ZEALAND GENERATION BALANCE AUGUST 2022 REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This month’s New Zealand Generation Balance report forecasts, for the base scenario in the next six months, a total of 16 potential generation shortfalls where the system may not have sufficient capacity to cover, over a high peak, the loss of the largest generator or HVDC pole if the next largest generator were also not available (N-1-G).
These potential shortfalls occur in August and September, and are caused by high anticipated demand and several generation outages in both NI and SI. There are further potential shortfalls for the ‘low gas’ and ‘low gas, no wind’ generation assumptions.
Since the July 2022 report, there has been a general increase in generation balance during mid August of approximately 120MW, with several SI generation outages being deferred. From 21/08/22 – 10/02/23 there has been an average decrease of approximately 366MW.